Palladium trades on NYMEX in USD per troy ounce, used primarily in catalytic converters for gasoline (petrol) vehicles. Russia and South Africa together supply the vast majority of global output, creating significant geopolitical supply risk.
Every figure in these two tables is derived from one input: how much Palladium (PA) normally moves in a session (1.8–2.6%), scaled outward from the live price above. It's a statistical band, not a forecast of an exact print — the same caveat that applies to the Tomorrow Prediction section above applies here too.
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Palladium's primary industrial use is in catalytic converters for gasoline (petrol) vehicles, which convert harmful engine exhaust gases into less harmful emissions. As gasoline vehicles have historically outsold diesel vehicles globally — particularly in the US and China — palladium demand has structurally exceeded platinum demand for much of the past decade, a key reason palladium traded at a significant premium to platinum for several years.
Russia's Norilsk Nickel and South African producers together account for the vast majority of global palladium mine supply. This concentration makes palladium acutely sensitive to geopolitical developments involving Russia — sanctions, export restrictions, or supply chain disruptions tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have historically caused sharp, rapid palladium price moves given how little spare global supply exists to absorb a disruption from either major producer.
Palladium prices surged to record highs above $2,900/oz in 2021, driven by a combination of South African mine supply disruptions (safety stoppages, power outages), tightening emissions standards increasing the palladium loading per vehicle, and constrained global supply growth. This episode remains a frequently cited case study in how thin, concentrated commodity supply chains can produce outsized price volatility relative to demand-side changes.
Of the major precious metals, palladium faces perhaps the most direct structural demand threat from the global shift toward electric vehicles, since EVs have no internal combustion engine and therefore require no catalytic converter at all. As EV penetration rises in China, Europe, and eventually other major auto markets, palladium demand from its dominant end-use faces a multi-decade structural decline that most analysts view as the primary long-term price risk.
Russia's Norilsk Nickel is one of the world's largest palladium producers. Sanctions or supply disruptions tied to Russia have historically caused sharp palladium price spikes given the supply concentration.
When palladium trades at a significant premium to platinum, automakers have economic incentive to redesign catalytic converters to substitute platinum back into gasoline vehicle applications where technically feasible — a process that takes several years to implement at scale due to engineering and certification requirements. This substitution dynamic means sustained wide price spreads between the two metals tend to self-correct over a multi-year horizon as automaker engineering catches up.
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