The projected next-session price, bullish / range / bearish probabilities and S1–R2 levels load here from live market data. The full methodology is written out below and does not require JavaScript.
MCX Natural Gas doesn't wait for MCX to open before it starts moving. Because it's priced off NYMEX Henry Hub (USD/mmBtu) and quoted in ₹ per mmBtu, the real work of tomorrow's session happens overnight, in markets that stay open long after India has gone home for the day. Our model reads those overnight markets directly — scoring each driver by how well it has historically predicted natural gas's next move, scaling every reading against that market's own normal daily swing, and quietly ignoring any exchange that's already closed for the day so a stale price can't distort the picture. The result feeds the support and resistance bands above, sized to natural gas's typical 3.5–4.5% session range.
Read the number as odds, not a guarantee. When the model says 62% bullish, overnight evidence tilts toward a higher open — sessions still close red inside that 62% plenty of times. The projected price works best treated as the middle of a range to watch, with S1/S2 and R1/R2 marking where that view gets proven right or wrong. Over a long enough run, it's disciplined position sizing that keeps a commodity account solvent, not a high hit rate on any one forecast.
The US benchmark. Natural gas is the most volatile MCX contract, so forecast bands are deliberately wide.
A single 10-day forecast revision can move prices 5% before any gas is burned. This is the dominant unmodellable factor.
Released Thursdays around 8–9 PM IST. A surprise draw or build resets the entire week's trend.
Currency passes straight through to the Rupee-denominated contract.
Structural new power demand has raised the long-run floor under Henry Hub.
Overnight moves in NYMEX Henry Hub (USD/mmBtu), the USD/INR rate and broader risk sentiment are what actually decide natural gas's direction for the next session — not anything happening on the MCX floor itself. Our model scores those inputs into one probability reading (bullish, range-bound or bearish) and refreshes it every 30 seconds while the relevant international markets stay open. Because that reading is a probability rather than a promise, it's shown as a band, not a single price.
Each driver — NYMEX Henry Hub, US weather models, EIA storage report and news sentiment — is scored against its own typical daily range, weighted by how much it historically explains MCX Natural Gas's next-day move, and combined into a normalised directional score. Markets whose sessions have closed are detected automatically and down-weighted so that stale prices cannot skew the forecast. The score is then converted into a projected price, three probability buckets and four pivot levels.
Those four levels — S1, S2, R1, R2 — are sized to natural gas's own normal session range, not a generic template. S1 and R1 are where most sessions turn back; pushing through S2 or R2 is the signal that what's happening has moved past a routine daily swing into something more directional.
No. MCX Trends publishes quantitative, educational analysis only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell MCX Natural Gas or any other contract. Commodity futures carry substantial risk of loss, and Indian traders should consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before acting on any forecast.
MCX Natural Gas is the most volatile major commodity on Indian exchanges — benchmarked to NYMEX Henry Hub. Prices can swing 5–10% in a single session on weather forecast changes or EIA storage surprises.
Enter a quantity in mmBtu to see its value at the live Natural Gas rate above.
Live rate, updates automatically. Dealer and broker prices include their own margin on top of this.
The ranges below aren't a prediction of where MCX Natural Gas will land — they're what its own typical daily move (3.5–4.5%) implies, projected forward from the live price above. Read them as a probability band, the same way you would the Tomorrow Prediction section.
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Natural Gas is unique in being directly driven by weather forecasts. A 10-day model update showing colder-than-expected temperatures across the US Northeast can trigger 5%+ moves before a single cubic foot of gas is actually burned. The two key weather models to watch are GFS (Global Forecast System, the US model updated four times daily) and ECMWF (European model, widely regarded as more accurate at 7–10 day range). When GFS and ECMWF disagree significantly on temperature outlook, gas volatility spikes as the market prices uncertainty.
The explosive growth of AI data centers is creating unprecedented new baseline electricity demand in the United States. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta collectively announced over $300 billion in data center capex for 2024–2026. Gas-fired power plants — which can ramp output quickly unlike nuclear or coal — fill the demand gap as data centers require 24/7 reliable power. This structural new electricity demand creates a persistently higher Henry Hub floor versus historical norms.
Domestic Indian gas demand is driven by three core segments: fertiliser production (urea plants use gas as both fuel and feedstock — IFFCO, GNFC, Rashtriya Chemicals all depend on gas supply and pricing), city gas distribution (CNG vehicles across Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, and Ahmedabad, plus PNG pipeline connections to homes and restaurants), and gas-fired power plants (particularly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh).
Every Thursday, the US EIA releases its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at approximately 8:00–9:00 PM IST. Larger-than-expected draw = sharply bullish. Surprise build = sharply bearish.
The US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is released every Thursday at 10:30 AM US Eastern Time. This translates to approximately 8:00 PM IST during US Daylight Saving Time (March–November) and approximately 9:00 PM IST during US Standard Time (November–March). This is the single most important weekly event for MCX Natural Gas traders — no other scheduled data release has as consistent and large an impact on this commodity. Position sizing around this report must account for potential 5–8% moves within the first 5 minutes.
The NYMEX Henry Hub forward curve typically shows a seasonal pattern: summer prices (June–August) are lower (weak cooling demand versus production), winter prices (December–February) are higher (heating demand), and spring/fall are transitional. When the curve is in steep contango (far-month prices significantly above near-month), storage is building and traders are being paid to wait — a bearish signal for near-term prices. When the curve is in backwardation (near-month prices above far-month), physical demand is urgent and supply is tight — a bullish signal.
Before 2016, the US was a net gas importer. The shale revolution turned it into a net exporter, and the commissioning of LNG export terminals at Sabine Pass (Louisiana), Corpus Christi (Texas), and Freeport (Texas) created a direct link between US gas prices and global LNG prices for the first time. When global LNG prices are significantly higher than Henry Hub, LNG export terminals run at full capacity — pulling US gas supply away from the domestic market and supporting Henry Hub prices. This means MCX Natural Gas traders in India now need to monitor European TTF gas prices and Asian LNG spot rates.
Risk Disclaimer: Commodity futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. The data and analysis on MCX Trends are for educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Always consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor.