The projected next-session price, bullish / range / bearish probabilities and S1–R2 levels load here from live market data. The full methodology is written out below and does not require JavaScript.
Forecasting crude oil for the next session is not a matter of drawing a line on a chart. MCX Crude Oil is quoted in ₹ per barrel and is derived from NYMEX WTI (USD/barrel), so tomorrow's Indian price is decided overnight in markets that are still open long after MCX has closed. Our model reads those markets directly: it weighs each driver by how much it historically explains crude oil's next-day move, normalises every input against its own typical daily range so that a large move in a quiet market counts for more than a small move in a noisy one, and discards any exchange whose prices have frozen because its session has ended. A typical crude oil session covers 1.8–2.6%, and that range is what sets the width of the support and resistance bands shown above.
The output is deliberately expressed as a probability, not a promise. A 62% bullish reading means the balance of overnight evidence favours a higher open — it does not mean the session cannot close red. Traders should treat the projected price as the centre of a distribution and the S1/S2 and R1/R2 levels as the points where the thesis is confirmed or invalidated. Position sizing, not prediction accuracy, is what keeps a commodity account alive.
MCX Crude is WTI multiplied by USD/INR. Tomorrow's WTI settlement is the single biggest input.
Brent prices the oil India actually imports. A widening WTI-Brent spread signals a US-specific storage story rather than a global one.
The full Rupee move passes through to the MCX contract with no offset.
The Wednesday US inventory report (roughly 8–9 PM IST) is the largest scheduled volatility event of the week.
Unscheduled production decisions are the main tail risk — no chart prices them in advance.
MCX Crude Oil direction for the next session is set overnight by NYMEX WTI (USD/barrel), the USD/INR exchange rate and global risk sentiment. Our model combines these into a single probability reading — bullish, range-bound or bearish — that updates every 30 seconds while international markets remain open. Because crude oil typically covers 1.8–2.6% in a session, forecasts are expressed as a band rather than a single number, and should be treated as a probability rather than a certainty.
Each driver — NYMEX WTI, Brent Crude, USD/INR and news sentiment — is scored against its own typical daily range, weighted by how much it historically explains MCX Crude Oil's next-day move, and combined into a normalised directional score. Markets whose sessions have closed are detected automatically and down-weighted so that stale prices cannot skew the forecast. The score is then converted into a projected price, three probability buckets and four pivot levels.
The S1, S2, R1 and R2 levels shown above are derived from MCX Crude Oil's average daily range of 1.8–2.6% applied to the last traded price. S1 and R1 mark the levels most sessions respect; a decisive close beyond S2 or R2 usually signals that a new trend has started rather than a normal daily oscillation.
No. MCX Trends publishes quantitative, educational analysis only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell MCX Crude Oil or any other contract. Commodity futures carry substantial risk of loss, and Indian traders should consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before acting on any forecast.
MCX Crude Oil tracks NYMEX WTI prices converted to Indian Rupees per barrel. India imports over 85% of its crude — making this the most strategically important commodity on Indian exchanges.
Every Wednesday, the US EIA releases its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. During US Daylight Saving Time (March–November), this hits at approximately 8:00 PM IST. During US Standard Time (November–March), it hits at approximately 9:00 PM IST. A larger-than-expected inventory draw triggers 1–3% spikes within 60 seconds. A surprise build crashes prices 2–4% within minutes. Never hold unhedged crude through this release without a pre-set stop.
OPEC+ controls approximately 40% of global crude production. A surprise cut of 1–2 million barrels/day can trigger 6–10% rallies in WTI that flow directly into MCX. Track Saudi Energy Ministry statements as a leading indicator. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven price of approximately $70–80/barrel is the level it consistently defends.
A $10/barrel rise in crude widens India's current account deficit by approximately $15 billion annually, weakening the Rupee and pushing inflation higher. Rising crude is directly bearish for aviation stocks (IndiGo, Air India), paint companies (Asian Paints, Berger), FMCG, logistics, and tyre manufacturers (MRF, CEAT, Balkrishna Industries).
MCX Crude Oil trades Monday to Friday from 9:00 AM to 11:30 PM IST. The most volatile period is typically after 6:00 PM IST when US markets are active. The Wednesday EIA report (8–9 PM IST) and monthly US Non-Farm Payrolls (released first Friday of each month, approximately 6:30 PM IST) are the two highest-impact scheduled events for MCX Crude.
MCX Crude ≈ NYMEX WTI (USD/barrel) × USD/INR spot rate. Example: WTI at $82 × 84.50 USD/INR = ₹6,929/barrel
MCX Crude uses WTI (West Texas Intermediate) as its benchmark, but Brent Crude is the international standard used to price most of the oil India actually imports. The WTI-Brent spread typically ranges from $2–5 per barrel with Brent at a slight premium. For practical trading purposes, both WTI and Brent direction are important — watch NYMEX WTI for MCX contract pricing and ICE Brent for India's actual import cost implications.
Risk Disclaimer: Commodity futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. The data and analysis on MCX Trends are for educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Always consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor.