The projected next-session price, bullish / range / bearish probabilities and S1–R2 levels load here from live market data. The full methodology is written out below and does not require JavaScript.
Predicting where crude oil opens tomorrow means watching the right clock. MCX Crude Oil's price is set by NYMEX WTI (USD/barrel) and expressed in ₹ per barrel — and that benchmark keeps trading for hours after MCX shuts for the night. Our model tracks it through that window, weighting each input by its historical accuracy at calling crude oil's next session, adjusting for how volatile that particular market normally runs, and dropping any feed that's gone stale because its own exchange has closed. Since crude oil typically moves 1.8–2.6% in a session, that's the scale the resulting support and resistance bands are built on.
The output is deliberately expressed as a probability, not a promise. A 62% bullish reading means the balance of overnight evidence favours a higher open — it does not mean the session cannot close red. Traders should treat the projected price as the centre of a distribution and the S1/S2 and R1/R2 levels as the points where the thesis is confirmed or invalidated. Position sizing, not prediction accuracy, is what keeps a commodity account alive.
MCX Crude is WTI multiplied by USD/INR. Tomorrow's WTI settlement is the single biggest input.
Brent prices the oil India actually imports. A widening WTI-Brent spread signals a US-specific storage story rather than a global one.
The full Rupee move passes through to the MCX contract with no offset.
The Wednesday US inventory report (roughly 8–9 PM IST) is the largest scheduled volatility event of the week.
Unscheduled production decisions are the main tail risk — no chart prices them in advance.
Nothing on the MCX floor decides crude oil's next move — that happens overnight, in NYMEX WTI (USD/barrel), USD/INR, and whatever global risk sentiment is doing. The model folds all three into a single bullish/range-bound/bearish probability that refreshes every 30 seconds for as long as those markets stay open. It's shown as a band rather than one number because that's what a probability actually is — a range of likely outcomes, not a prediction of one.
Each driver — NYMEX WTI, Brent Crude, USD/INR and news sentiment — is scored against its own typical daily range, weighted by how much it historically explains MCX Crude Oil's next-day move, and combined into a normalised directional score. Markets whose sessions have closed are detected automatically and down-weighted so that stale prices cannot skew the forecast. The score is then converted into a projected price, three probability buckets and four pivot levels.
The S1, S2, R1 and R2 levels shown above scale with crude oil's own typical volatility rather than a fixed number — S1 and R1 mark the levels most sessions respect, while a decisive close beyond S2 or R2 usually signals that a new trend has started rather than a normal daily oscillation.
No. MCX Trends publishes quantitative, educational analysis only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell MCX Crude Oil or any other contract. Commodity futures carry substantial risk of loss, and Indian traders should consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before acting on any forecast.
MCX Crude Oil tracks NYMEX WTI prices converted to Indian Rupees per barrel. India imports over 85% of its crude — making this the most strategically important commodity on Indian exchanges.
Enter a quantity in barrels to see its value at the live Crude Oil rate above.
Live rate, updates automatically. Dealer and broker prices include their own margin on top of this.
Every figure in these two tables is derived from one input: how much MCX Crude Oil normally moves in a session (1.8–2.6%), scaled outward from the live price above. It's a statistical band, not a forecast of an exact print — the same caveat that applies to the Tomorrow Prediction section above applies here too.
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Every Wednesday, the US EIA releases its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. During US Daylight Saving Time (March–November), this hits at approximately 8:00 PM IST. During US Standard Time (November–March), it hits at approximately 9:00 PM IST. A larger-than-expected inventory draw triggers 1–3% spikes within 60 seconds. A surprise build crashes prices 2–4% within minutes. Never hold unhedged crude through this release without a pre-set stop.
OPEC+ controls approximately 40% of global crude production. A surprise cut of 1–2 million barrels/day can trigger 6–10% rallies in WTI that flow directly into MCX. Track Saudi Energy Ministry statements as a leading indicator. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven price of approximately $70–80/barrel is the level it consistently defends.
A $10/barrel rise in crude widens India's current account deficit by approximately $15 billion annually, weakening the Rupee and pushing inflation higher. Rising crude is directly bearish for aviation stocks (IndiGo, Air India), paint companies (Asian Paints, Berger), FMCG, logistics, and tyre manufacturers (MRF, CEAT, Balkrishna Industries).
MCX Crude Oil trades Monday to Friday from 9:00 AM to 11:30 PM IST. The most volatile period is typically after 6:00 PM IST when US markets are active. The Wednesday EIA report (8–9 PM IST) and monthly US Non-Farm Payrolls (released first Friday of each month, approximately 6:30 PM IST) are the two highest-impact scheduled events for MCX Crude.
MCX Crude ≈ NYMEX WTI (USD/barrel) × USD/INR spot rate. Example: WTI at $82 × 84.50 USD/INR = ₹6,929/barrel
MCX Crude uses WTI (West Texas Intermediate) as its benchmark, but Brent Crude is the international standard used to price most of the oil India actually imports. The WTI-Brent spread typically ranges from $2–5 per barrel with Brent at a slight premium. For practical trading purposes, both WTI and Brent direction are important — watch NYMEX WTI for MCX contract pricing and ICE Brent for India's actual import cost implications.
Risk Disclaimer: Commodity futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. The data and analysis on MCX Trends are for educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Always consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor.