Henry Hub Natural Gas, traded on NYMEX in USD per mmBtu, is the US benchmark that MCX Natural Gas in India is directly derived from — named after the physical pipeline hub in Louisiana that serves as the official delivery point.
A statistical range built from Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG)'s own average daily move (3.5–4.5%), applied around the live price above. This is a probability band, not a guaranteed forecast — treat it the same way as the Tomorrow Prediction section.
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Henry Hub is a physical natural gas pipeline interchange located in Erath, Louisiana, connecting 13 interstate and intrastate pipelines. It was chosen as the official delivery point for NYMEX natural gas futures because of this extensive pipeline connectivity, and its name has since become synonymous with the US benchmark natural gas price globally — much as "Brent" refers to a North Sea oil field but has become shorthand for the entire benchmark.
Natural gas is uniquely driven by weather forecasts rather than realised demand — a 10-day forecast update showing a colder-than-expected US Northeast winter can move Henry Hub prices 5%+ before any additional gas has actually been consumed. The two most-watched models are the American GFS (updated four times daily) and the European ECMWF (widely regarded as more accurate at the 7–10 day range); when they disagree significantly, volatility spikes as the market prices in genuine forecast uncertainty.
US weather forecasts move Henry Hub before a single cubic foot is burned; the Thursday EIA storage report then confirms or reverses those expectations — the two together drive nearly all short-term volatility.
The US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released every Thursday at approximately 8:00–9:00 PM IST, shows how much gas was added to or withdrawn from underground storage the previous week versus market expectations. A surprise larger-than-expected withdrawal (colder weather, higher demand) is bullish; a surprise build is bearish. This single weekly release routinely moves Henry Hub 3–7% within minutes, more than almost any other scheduled data point in commodity markets.
Before roughly 2016, the US was a natural gas importer with prices set almost entirely by domestic supply and demand. The shale revolution and subsequent construction of LNG export terminals at Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, and Freeport created a direct link between Henry Hub and international gas prices for the first time — when European or Asian LNG prices are elevated, export terminals run at full capacity, pulling US supply toward exports and supporting Henry Hub prices even when domestic US demand is unremarkable.
The rapid buildout of AI data centres by Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta has created substantial new baseline electricity demand in the United States, and gas-fired power plants — which can ramp output quickly, unlike nuclear or coal — are absorbing much of this new demand. This structural shift is widely seen as raising the long-run Henry Hub price floor compared to pre-AI-boom historical norms, a dynamic MCX Natural Gas traders in India increasingly factor into medium-term positioning.
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